Adam Czyzewski

No one expected last Wednesday’s announcement by the OPEC cartel that it had struck a deal to reduce crude output by almost one million barrels a day. The news immediately triggered a 6% surge in oil prices. So what lies ahead? How does this decision affect our expectations outlined in the 2015 Integrated Report? http://raportzintegrowany2015.orlen.pl/en/our-orlen-strategy/outlook-2016-plus.html… » read more

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Empirical knowledge of innovations can be gained from the IT sector, which abounds in new ideas and innovations. Looking at how quickly tablets and smartphones became commonplace in our daily lives, it seems that in only a decade we may expect to see our roads travelled by electric cars and electricity being generated using wind… » read more

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In Q2 2016, the situation on the global oil market unfolded in line with our expectations. Oil prices continued on an upward trend started around mid-January 2016. On the back of stronger demand (fuelled by low prices) and unforeseen events, which amplified the factors with a bearing on supply, the average price of Brent crude… » read more

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Random forecast

Not a day goes by without me being asked about future oil prices. And all discussions that follow end with the inescapable conclusion that oil prices cannot be predicted. This is a complete reversal in the way of thinking about the future from 8–10 years back, when most business decisions in the energy sector hinged… » read more

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Last year, we outlined our expectations as to crude oil prices and margins over the coming two years. We anticipated substantial daily fluctuations as part of shorter or longer cycles, painting a statistical picture of the search for the marginal cost of production, as yet undetermined, providing a new frame of reference for oil prices.… » read more

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Posted by adamczyzewski

We are creating the independent potential of our economy, covering the complete value chain – from concept development and R&D up to the final product reaching global markets. By investing in innovation, we are creating new demand (innovation addresses latent demand), which make our investment projects less susceptible to fluctuations in the economic cycle. We… » read more

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Innovation is an alternative model of economic growth that relies on leveraging knowledge and experience, science and business to create a new reality, rather than merely copy or improve old designs. Compared to growth through modernisation, this model assigns a different role to the state and gives priority to other business solutions. The state provides… » read more

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Demise of oil nowhere in sight

In my previous two blog entries, I tried to explain why oil companies have developed the ability to view oil prices through the lens of supply and demand changes in the long-time horizon of up to several decades, and why they interpret current market developments from that perspective. As Bob Dudley, the CEO of BP,… » read more

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Posted by adamczyzewski